Tuesday, November 04, 2008

So NBC and ABC have just called Pennsylvania for Obama. Meanwhile CNN, Fox News, CBS, and non-TV organizations like the AP and NYTimes (as well as RealClearPolitics, which, while not as mainstream, I respect a lot) have not. At this stage in the election I'm looking for the fullest map, the most filled in projection, all the while realizing I'm part of the problem. They call states too early (like in 2000) because of people like me. I understand the tug, and how it's a prisoner's dilemma. It's best for society if no one makes premature calls, and in the long run it's the best for everyone, but for any state at any moment, it's best to make the call as soon as possible, regardless of what the other networks do. If they don't, you get some of their viewers/readers. If they do, you need to keep up so they don't get yours. That said, over time, if you're inaccurate, people stop relying on you (and in terms of personal incentives, not organizations, you could lose your job for being that embarrassingly wrong). Sorry the analysis is a little more superficial than I usually provide; it's a busy night. Any thoughts on the incentive structures at play, and what kind of behavior is "best"?

Me personally, I'm watching CNN, have the NYTimes dashboard up which tracks projections from NYTimes, ABC, NBC, CBS, Fox, CNN and AP. Plus I have the RCP map and data tables up, along with a NYTimes map and a window I use to flip between major news network maps. I'm also in contact with others, and blogging.

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