So apparently a fair number of my high school friends read this blog. Hi, High School Friends! Nice seeing you at the reunion an hour ago (now that's responsive blogging!).
For those of you who missed it, the food was good and there was an open bar.
If you read my blog and I know you but don't know you read my blog, say hi sometime. It was great catching up with old friends tonight, and I hope not to be as remiss at keeping in touch in the future (I think we all do). So take the leap and say hi; if you don't want to do it first, consider this post a heartfelt "hello."
Saturday, November 29, 2008
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
My Math Puzzles
So I've been missing academia lately. I've discovered something interesting, a set of values for which x^x = y^y. I wonder how many there are.
I also came across some old favorites, "proofs" that clearly aren't true, but seem like they work. For a fun puzzle, can you find the "mistake" in each one that makes the fake-proof work?
I also came across some old favorites, "proofs" that clearly aren't true, but seem like they work. For a fun puzzle, can you find the "mistake" in each one that makes the fake-proof work?
a = b
a^2 = ab
a^2-b^2 = ab-b^2
(a+b)(a-b) = b(a-b)
a+b = b
2b = b
2 = 1
x = (Pi+3)/2
2x = Pi+3
2x(Pi-3) = (Pi+3)(Pi-3)
2Pix-6x = Pi^2-9
9-6x = Pi^2-2Pix
9-6x+x^2 = Pi^2-2Pix+x^2
(3-x)^2 = (Pi-x)^2
3-x = Pi-x
Pi = 3
-1 = -1
-1/1 = -1/1
-1/1 = 1/-1
sqrt(-1/1) = sqrt(1/-1)
i/1 = 1/i
i = 1/i
i * i = 1
-1 = 1
Friday, November 21, 2008
Some clever photographs. Makes me miss my days as a photograph student. Chuck, the ones with the sunsets are better than ours, especially that first one. We gotta go back and try again.
Thursday, November 20, 2008
My Problem with Menus
You know what really grinds my gears? When a menu lists many, but not all, of the ingredients of an item. It's one thing to say "Turkey sandwich." Then you know to ask.
But some places they don't give you relevant information, while pretending to. Even at my beloved Quizno's, which for some reason fails to mention they put MAYO on a cheesesteak. Epic fail. Or when the Harrisburg Hilton lists the type of cheese, the type of bacon, even the type of roll they serve a grilled chicken sandwich on, but doesn't mention they serve mayo, which I hate. It's one thing to not mention the lettuce; I can take that off. But mayo? Come on, people. A little notice would be nice. Especially late at night.
But some places they don't give you relevant information, while pretending to. Even at my beloved Quizno's, which for some reason fails to mention they put MAYO on a cheesesteak. Epic fail. Or when the Harrisburg Hilton lists the type of cheese, the type of bacon, even the type of roll they serve a grilled chicken sandwich on, but doesn't mention they serve mayo, which I hate. It's one thing to not mention the lettuce; I can take that off. But mayo? Come on, people. A little notice would be nice. Especially late at night.
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
Saturday, November 15, 2008
I'd just like to use this post to tell people to go read My Abortion Question (posted November 11th, 2 posts down) and reply if you have any insights. Just because I'm posting other stuff doesn't mean I feel like we've finally settled the abortion question once and for all.
Why is abortion in the case of incest more OK than abortion as an alternative to having a child out of wedlock? If you believe it's a human life, shouldn't it be the same?
Why is abortion in the case of incest more OK than abortion as an alternative to having a child out of wedlock? If you believe it's a human life, shouldn't it be the same?
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
My Chicago Hotel
I am in the weirdest hotel right now. At times it goes above and beyond the nicest resorts I've ever seen, and at other times it's less functional than a Motel 6. Overall, though, I like it.
When I arrived, I had to take stairs up to the lobby. Not totally odd, but usually there's an elevator or escalator for second floor lobbies. Turns out there is an elevator, but it's carefully concealed. When I checked in they asked if I'd like to partake in the wine reception. I looked around. Turns out, every night there's a wine reception for all the guests, no extra charge! All you can drink! Good wines too. Between delays and horrible cab rides, my 2 hour flight was the center of a trip that took 7 hours door to door. I hadn't eaten in even longer than that, and apparently I got drunk on I-forget-how-many glasses. Pretty swanky for a hotel though. Then, I got a free hand massage! They had a professional at the reception. My hands still smell great, and this was hours ago. Pretty ritzy so far.
Then I went upstairs to check out my room. On the left as I walked in, I saw double-doors with the kind of handles that don't move relative to the doors in which they're embedded. On the right was a single door with a turn-knob. I had to go to the bathroom, so I turned to the right. Almost made a mess of the closet. That's right, the closet doors led to the bathroom, and the normal door led to the closet.
In the closet, where one would expect to find extra towels or sheets or pillows or a bathrobe, is a set of leopard-print boxers and camisole (of matching pattern). I'm going to repeat that. My hotel room contains A LEOPARD PRINT CAMI AND BOXERS.
The room is quite nice. Big comfortable bed, free fast internet, and a giant flatscreen HD TV. Temperature control works great. But then there's no outlet. There are no fewer than 4 phone/cable jacks in the room, but I couldn't find an electrical outlet. I know there has to be one, because lamps are on and the clock works, but I can't find it. Turns out there's one behind the bed and one behind the dresser with the TV on top. Drunk as I was, I rearranged all the furniture in my room. Now everything is back where it was, and my laptop is plugged in. I just realized I'm going to have to do it again to recharge my cell phone, and once more before I leave.
Sitting next to me is a wonderfully functional and beautiful set of glasses on a silver tray with matching ice bucket. I've been up and down every hallway on my floor, and I can say with certainty that there is no ice machine. OK then.
So I'm sitting here in my swanky PoMo hotel room, next to an eternally empty ice bucket, staring at a wall with enough repeating ovals and rectangles to make me consider taking LSD so I'll hallucinate something a little more down to earth. I'm drunk on free wine and relaxed from a fantastic hand massage, confused about the bathroom doors and the contents of my closet, and feeling Chuck's perpetual longing for ice. I see the "charging" icon in the corner of my laptop's screen, and I feel an overwhelming sense of accomplishment. The free bottled water the front desk gave me is of exceptionally high quality, and I find it quite tasty. Sobriety can't be far away now.
People really like Obama out here.
(Special thanks to Cookie, who made my night by having Chicago-style pizza with me.)
When I arrived, I had to take stairs up to the lobby. Not totally odd, but usually there's an elevator or escalator for second floor lobbies. Turns out there is an elevator, but it's carefully concealed. When I checked in they asked if I'd like to partake in the wine reception. I looked around. Turns out, every night there's a wine reception for all the guests, no extra charge! All you can drink! Good wines too. Between delays and horrible cab rides, my 2 hour flight was the center of a trip that took 7 hours door to door. I hadn't eaten in even longer than that, and apparently I got drunk on I-forget-how-many glasses. Pretty swanky for a hotel though. Then, I got a free hand massage! They had a professional at the reception. My hands still smell great, and this was hours ago. Pretty ritzy so far.
Then I went upstairs to check out my room. On the left as I walked in, I saw double-doors with the kind of handles that don't move relative to the doors in which they're embedded. On the right was a single door with a turn-knob. I had to go to the bathroom, so I turned to the right. Almost made a mess of the closet. That's right, the closet doors led to the bathroom, and the normal door led to the closet.
In the closet, where one would expect to find extra towels or sheets or pillows or a bathrobe, is a set of leopard-print boxers and camisole (of matching pattern). I'm going to repeat that. My hotel room contains A LEOPARD PRINT CAMI AND BOXERS.
The room is quite nice. Big comfortable bed, free fast internet, and a giant flatscreen HD TV. Temperature control works great. But then there's no outlet. There are no fewer than 4 phone/cable jacks in the room, but I couldn't find an electrical outlet. I know there has to be one, because lamps are on and the clock works, but I can't find it. Turns out there's one behind the bed and one behind the dresser with the TV on top. Drunk as I was, I rearranged all the furniture in my room. Now everything is back where it was, and my laptop is plugged in. I just realized I'm going to have to do it again to recharge my cell phone, and once more before I leave.
Sitting next to me is a wonderfully functional and beautiful set of glasses on a silver tray with matching ice bucket. I've been up and down every hallway on my floor, and I can say with certainty that there is no ice machine. OK then.
So I'm sitting here in my swanky PoMo hotel room, next to an eternally empty ice bucket, staring at a wall with enough repeating ovals and rectangles to make me consider taking LSD so I'll hallucinate something a little more down to earth. I'm drunk on free wine and relaxed from a fantastic hand massage, confused about the bathroom doors and the contents of my closet, and feeling Chuck's perpetual longing for ice. I see the "charging" icon in the corner of my laptop's screen, and I feel an overwhelming sense of accomplishment. The free bottled water the front desk gave me is of exceptionally high quality, and I find it quite tasty. Sobriety can't be far away now.
People really like Obama out here.
(Special thanks to Cookie, who made my night by having Chicago-style pizza with me.)
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
My Abortion Question
Abortion is a tricky issue, and I'm not going to get into it in a lot of breadth here, but I wanted to ask a question: why is abortion of fetuses created through incest more acceptable than fetuses created by two unrelated persons? I very much understand exceptions carved out for when the mother's life is in danger; I find opposition to such abortions unconscionable. Even if the fetus is a human life, why force two to die when you could instead have only one death on your hands? Through inaction, you become twice the murderer.
Then after that, there's another tier of exceptions people cite, the "rape or incest." While I understand incest is not often consensual, I believe those cases would also fall under "rape." Rape I understand slightly less, but there is a choice argument to be made. A woman should bear less responsibility for a choice forced upon her than one she made willingly. If you think it's a human life though...let me ask you this, would killing an infant left on your doorstep be any better than killing a 2-month-old of your own genetic material?
But then there's incest, which is the subject of my question. Perhaps someone out there can explain this to me. If a child is created consensually out of incest, how can an otherwise pro-life person be OK with its destruction? How can someone who believes it to be a human life say its socially taboo origin warrants its destruction? We have more of a revulsion to the action that created it, which helps it slip by under the emotional radar, but logically, how is it any less of a human life? If you're pro-life, how is it any less a murder? The only difference I can think of is that it's much more likely to have genetic abnormalities and mental deficiencies. But if that's the difference, then how can someone think the following things: (A) A fetus is a human life, and killing it is murder (B) It is immoral to kill people with downs syndrome or other mental deficiencies and abnormalities (C) It is not immoral to kill a fetus who simply has a higher probability than normal of developing such aberrations.
The logic with rape to some extent, and to a much greater extent with incest, implies that even among many pro-life people, a fetus is given less than full-human status. It implies that it's on a gradient...more than just a part of a woman's body, but still not a full person. Maybe a 0.6, and a few circumstances regarding HOW it was created could push it down to 0.4 which rounds down? How does it work? How can someone believe with every fiber of their being that a fetus is a human life and be OK with abortion in the case of rape or incest? How is rape or incest the fetus's, how is it the BABY'S, fault?
[NOTE: I think the comments are interesting enough to warrant reading here, and please, participate if you have the urge. I'm not sure of my personal position on this issue, and I'm mainly arguing as devil's advocate (no horribly existential pun intended) both from and against the perspective of a pro-lifer to attempt to better understand a position I find contradictory.]
Then after that, there's another tier of exceptions people cite, the "rape or incest." While I understand incest is not often consensual, I believe those cases would also fall under "rape." Rape I understand slightly less, but there is a choice argument to be made. A woman should bear less responsibility for a choice forced upon her than one she made willingly. If you think it's a human life though...let me ask you this, would killing an infant left on your doorstep be any better than killing a 2-month-old of your own genetic material?
But then there's incest, which is the subject of my question. Perhaps someone out there can explain this to me. If a child is created consensually out of incest, how can an otherwise pro-life person be OK with its destruction? How can someone who believes it to be a human life say its socially taboo origin warrants its destruction? We have more of a revulsion to the action that created it, which helps it slip by under the emotional radar, but logically, how is it any less of a human life? If you're pro-life, how is it any less a murder? The only difference I can think of is that it's much more likely to have genetic abnormalities and mental deficiencies. But if that's the difference, then how can someone think the following things: (A) A fetus is a human life, and killing it is murder (B) It is immoral to kill people with downs syndrome or other mental deficiencies and abnormalities (C) It is not immoral to kill a fetus who simply has a higher probability than normal of developing such aberrations.
The logic with rape to some extent, and to a much greater extent with incest, implies that even among many pro-life people, a fetus is given less than full-human status. It implies that it's on a gradient...more than just a part of a woman's body, but still not a full person. Maybe a 0.6, and a few circumstances regarding HOW it was created could push it down to 0.4 which rounds down? How does it work? How can someone believe with every fiber of their being that a fetus is a human life and be OK with abortion in the case of rape or incest? How is rape or incest the fetus's, how is it the BABY'S, fault?
[NOTE: I think the comments are interesting enough to warrant reading here, and please, participate if you have the urge. I'm not sure of my personal position on this issue, and I'm mainly arguing as devil's advocate (no horribly existential pun intended) both from and against the perspective of a pro-lifer to attempt to better understand a position I find contradictory.]
Monday, November 10, 2008
I just saw an advertisement for a television show featuring a guest appearance by Mary-Kate Olsen. I remarked to Chuck, "You know, this is the first time I've ever heard of an Olsen twin doing something without the other." Then about ten seconds later, "Well, this and rehab."
Then ten seconds later "I think I'll blog that thought."
This is all by way of introducing a new Despair.com poster I thought was appropriate: Blogging.
Then ten seconds later "I think I'll blog that thought."
This is all by way of introducing a new Despair.com poster I thought was appropriate: Blogging.
Thursday, November 06, 2008
My Nine-Year-Old Heroine
Watching the news the past few days, it would be easy to believe that Obama's victory is the only important story right now, and that it is the biggest gain for the civil rights movement since Martin Luther King Jr. and racially-indifferent suffrage.
But there's another story that trumps it, and it takes place in a land almost on the other side of the world, a land where you'd never see women running for president and vice president, or even running down the street alone outside their house.
This story's heroine has no staff, no volunteers, no chanting crowds, no international pedigree, no experience, no speeches at the crossroads of destiny, and she has no Ivy League degrees, though she might someday. It's hard to tell; she's only nine years old. Her name is Arwa, named for a Queen of her country, Yemen, who reigned almost a millennium ago.
Women in Arwa's country have made quite a bit of negative progress over the last 900 years. Human Rights Watch has reported on the often violent discrimination against and mistreatment of women in the country, including the elimination of the minimum age to marry. Previously set at fifteen, a subjective standard of puberty is now the soonest a father can lawfully force his daughter into marriage with any man. This anachronistic injustice was inflicted upon Arwa, at the age of nine.
For $150 (US) and the promise of around 2,000 more later, Arwa's father, struggling to make ends meet and support a family, agreed to marry off his youngest daughter to a forty-something man who first passed on Arwa's fifteen-year-old sister.
For seven months, Arwa was a wife and a slave, routinely beaten for rebuffing her "husband's" advances. Her father tried to stand up for her, but it was she who went from neighbor to neighbor asking for a small loan (she had no share of the marriage's resources). She sought the money so that she might travel, not to run away, but to make a stand. Inspired by the story of another girl, a year her senior, she did not go and hide, but she went to court, and sued for her freedom.
And she won. In a country which treats women as property, which practices censorship by intimidation and violence, which is intolerant of any race, religion or viewpoint other than the state's, Arwa's compelling tale and young age persuaded a judge to grant her freedom.
Yemen may be approaching a tipping point. A judge took compassion, and, through the creation of such common law, has set an inspiring precedent that most Americans safely take for granted. But in Yemen, it's dramatic progress. A line in the sand, one that says even men can go too far when dealing with women, or at the very least, girls. A line a judge can say should not be crossed. This is how it starts. I'd implore the Yemeni people to not waste this opportunity, to take steps to safeguard a full half of their population, to gain the respect of the world and the strength and prosperity that comes with investing in human capital and allowing men and women to contribute to society to the best of their abilities (I would implore such things, though I doubt I have many Yemeni readers). Still, I think this story should resonate with Americans, who can appreciate what they have a little more, who can appreciate what Barack Obama's victory means not just to us but to the world, who can appreciate the context of civil rights and the desperate and desperately important struggle for equality. And I think our lawsuit-happy culture can appreciate our heroine's methods; a nine-year-old girl had her day in court, and kicked ass.
Now, proud to be a nine-year-old divorcee, Arwa can go back to being a little girl, as she and her country help each other grow up.
But there's another story that trumps it, and it takes place in a land almost on the other side of the world, a land where you'd never see women running for president and vice president, or even running down the street alone outside their house.
This story's heroine has no staff, no volunteers, no chanting crowds, no international pedigree, no experience, no speeches at the crossroads of destiny, and she has no Ivy League degrees, though she might someday. It's hard to tell; she's only nine years old. Her name is Arwa, named for a Queen of her country, Yemen, who reigned almost a millennium ago.
Women in Arwa's country have made quite a bit of negative progress over the last 900 years. Human Rights Watch has reported on the often violent discrimination against and mistreatment of women in the country, including the elimination of the minimum age to marry. Previously set at fifteen, a subjective standard of puberty is now the soonest a father can lawfully force his daughter into marriage with any man. This anachronistic injustice was inflicted upon Arwa, at the age of nine.
For $150 (US) and the promise of around 2,000 more later, Arwa's father, struggling to make ends meet and support a family, agreed to marry off his youngest daughter to a forty-something man who first passed on Arwa's fifteen-year-old sister.
For seven months, Arwa was a wife and a slave, routinely beaten for rebuffing her "husband's" advances. Her father tried to stand up for her, but it was she who went from neighbor to neighbor asking for a small loan (she had no share of the marriage's resources). She sought the money so that she might travel, not to run away, but to make a stand. Inspired by the story of another girl, a year her senior, she did not go and hide, but she went to court, and sued for her freedom.
And she won. In a country which treats women as property, which practices censorship by intimidation and violence, which is intolerant of any race, religion or viewpoint other than the state's, Arwa's compelling tale and young age persuaded a judge to grant her freedom.
Yemen may be approaching a tipping point. A judge took compassion, and, through the creation of such common law, has set an inspiring precedent that most Americans safely take for granted. But in Yemen, it's dramatic progress. A line in the sand, one that says even men can go too far when dealing with women, or at the very least, girls. A line a judge can say should not be crossed. This is how it starts. I'd implore the Yemeni people to not waste this opportunity, to take steps to safeguard a full half of their population, to gain the respect of the world and the strength and prosperity that comes with investing in human capital and allowing men and women to contribute to society to the best of their abilities (I would implore such things, though I doubt I have many Yemeni readers). Still, I think this story should resonate with Americans, who can appreciate what they have a little more, who can appreciate what Barack Obama's victory means not just to us but to the world, who can appreciate the context of civil rights and the desperate and desperately important struggle for equality. And I think our lawsuit-happy culture can appreciate our heroine's methods; a nine-year-old girl had her day in court, and kicked ass.
Now, proud to be a nine-year-old divorcee, Arwa can go back to being a little girl, as she and her country help each other grow up.
My Election Statistic
Here's something absolutely remarkable about Obama's victory: he got people to vote against their economic interests, for him. Now, the Republicans have been doing that for a long time by appealing to social issues and not admitting how bad their policies are for the poor rural conservatives whose votes they almost invariably get (and repay with very little help, economic or otherwise). But this time the Democrats got people to vote against their interests.
George W. Bush won the demographic of people making over $200,000 a year by somewhere around a 2:1 margin. Huge 30-point blowout. But not only was Obama competitive in that demographic, he WON by 6 points. People making over $200,000 a year voted for Obama 53-47. And that's after Obama EXPLICITLY promised to tax them more. He campaigned on raising their taxes, and won their votes. They voted for a better leader, not a better personal tax-deal. Maybe Joe Biden was right, and paying higher taxes is, in this one case, patriotic. I know this little piece of trivia makes me a little prouder to be an American, that Obama inspired people to look long term, not short term, to put their country above themselves, and to prosper from a better nation instead of from tax breaks that favor the wealthy.
George W. Bush won the demographic of people making over $200,000 a year by somewhere around a 2:1 margin. Huge 30-point blowout. But not only was Obama competitive in that demographic, he WON by 6 points. People making over $200,000 a year voted for Obama 53-47. And that's after Obama EXPLICITLY promised to tax them more. He campaigned on raising their taxes, and won their votes. They voted for a better leader, not a better personal tax-deal. Maybe Joe Biden was right, and paying higher taxes is, in this one case, patriotic. I know this little piece of trivia makes me a little prouder to be an American, that Obama inspired people to look long term, not short term, to put their country above themselves, and to prosper from a better nation instead of from tax breaks that favor the wealthy.
Wednesday, November 05, 2008
CNN.com: "Change has Come" and "Obama beats McCain"
MSNBC.com: "HISTORIC CHOICE" and "Shattering racial barriers, Americans send Barack Obama to the White House"
NYTimes.com: "OBAMA" and "Racial Barrier Falls as Voters Embrace Call for Change"
ABC News: "Mr. President" [Next to picture of Obama] and "Barack Obama makes history, John McCain concedes."
CBS News: "Barack Obama makes history"
Fox News: "FACING A 'STEEP' CLIMB" and "President-elect Barack Obama will inherit on Jan. 20 the worst financial crisis in 70 years and two wars."
Way to be gracious.
MSNBC.com: "HISTORIC CHOICE" and "Shattering racial barriers, Americans send Barack Obama to the White House"
NYTimes.com: "OBAMA" and "Racial Barrier Falls as Voters Embrace Call for Change"
ABC News: "Mr. President" [Next to picture of Obama] and "Barack Obama makes history, John McCain concedes."
CBS News: "Barack Obama makes history"
Fox News: "FACING A 'STEEP' CLIMB" and "President-elect Barack Obama will inherit on Jan. 20 the worst financial crisis in 70 years and two wars."
Way to be gracious.
A little speechless, though that may be the combination of relief and fatigue.
I have a good feeling about this.
I'm going to miss my little election command center. I should get into politics...further into politics than bad commentary at least.
What's striking to me about this moment is that it will be noted in history for the changes marked by and at this time, on this day. But we didn't vote for Obama for the changes that happened tonight, but for the changes that have been promised. Despite what candidates say, campaigns are about voters, about connecting, about fights over questions, wedge issues, and whom the electorate trusts and likes. But this one really was about ideas and ideals. We followed an inspirational leader, but tonight is not the triumph, but the victory which allows all future triumphs to come. Today we sent a message; tomorrow we go to work.
I have a good feeling about this.
I'm going to miss my little election command center. I should get into politics...further into politics than bad commentary at least.
What's striking to me about this moment is that it will be noted in history for the changes marked by and at this time, on this day. But we didn't vote for Obama for the changes that happened tonight, but for the changes that have been promised. Despite what candidates say, campaigns are about voters, about connecting, about fights over questions, wedge issues, and whom the electorate trusts and likes. But this one really was about ideas and ideals. We followed an inspirational leader, but tonight is not the triumph, but the victory which allows all future triumphs to come. Today we sent a message; tomorrow we go to work.
Tuesday, November 04, 2008
InTrade has Obama at 98.7% to win. Iowa and New Mexico are breaking for Obama, meaning he could even lose Oregon or Washington. And, like I said, if he wins California, Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington (or now California plus two of the remaining three), he's got the presidency.
So this blog is now calling the election! I am predicting that Barack Obama will be the forty-fourth President of the United States! I'm sure my endorsement helped, so you're welcome, and congratulations, Senator, soon to be President Elect, Obama.
New Futurama movie will be watched tomorrow.
So this blog is now calling the election! I am predicting that Barack Obama will be the forty-fourth President of the United States! I'm sure my endorsement helped, so you're welcome, and congratulations, Senator, soon to be President Elect, Obama.
New Futurama movie will be watched tomorrow.
Want to know how other candidates are doing? Check it out here:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/president/allcandidates/
Bob Barr is beating Nader. Ouch.
Also, CNN just spent a long time doing EXACTLY the analysis I did in my last post, about Obama needing those 4 states which he has almost no chance of losing. They slowly tried to theorize a McCain victory by turning states red, and eventually got to all non-called states red except the 4 I picked out immediately. Then they realized that Obama was almost definitely going to win them, and mentioned McCain would need a huge upset in one to become President (or an already called state would need to go the other way). These people at CNN are kind of slow. Maybe I should apply for a job as a political analyst.
PS - The "Phillies" candidate is not the Philadelphia Phillies, as I had hoped. It's Libertarian candidate George Phillies. Yeah, I know, boo-urns.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/president/allcandidates/
Bob Barr is beating Nader. Ouch.
Also, CNN just spent a long time doing EXACTLY the analysis I did in my last post, about Obama needing those 4 states which he has almost no chance of losing. They slowly tried to theorize a McCain victory by turning states red, and eventually got to all non-called states red except the 4 I picked out immediately. Then they realized that Obama was almost definitely going to win them, and mentioned McCain would need a huge upset in one to become President (or an already called state would need to go the other way). These people at CNN are kind of slow. Maybe I should apply for a job as a political analyst.
PS - The "Phillies" candidate is not the Philadelphia Phillies, as I had hoped. It's Libertarian candidate George Phillies. Yeah, I know, boo-urns.
NBC just called Ohio for Obama. By their projections, Obama needs 75 more votes to clinch. California, Oregon, Washington and Hawaii would do it for him. Virginia, Florida, North Carolina, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, and Indiana could all be made irrelevant. As I've typed this, I just saw ABC, CBS and Fox have also called Ohio for Obama.
Addendum made a minute later: those 4 states would clinch for Obama under projections by NBC, ABC and CBS right now.
Addendum made a minute later: those 4 states would clinch for Obama under projections by NBC, ABC and CBS right now.
So NBC and ABC have just called Pennsylvania for Obama. Meanwhile CNN, Fox News, CBS, and non-TV organizations like the AP and NYTimes (as well as RealClearPolitics, which, while not as mainstream, I respect a lot) have not. At this stage in the election I'm looking for the fullest map, the most filled in projection, all the while realizing I'm part of the problem. They call states too early (like in 2000) because of people like me. I understand the tug, and how it's a prisoner's dilemma. It's best for society if no one makes premature calls, and in the long run it's the best for everyone, but for any state at any moment, it's best to make the call as soon as possible, regardless of what the other networks do. If they don't, you get some of their viewers/readers. If they do, you need to keep up so they don't get yours. That said, over time, if you're inaccurate, people stop relying on you (and in terms of personal incentives, not organizations, you could lose your job for being that embarrassingly wrong). Sorry the analysis is a little more superficial than I usually provide; it's a busy night. Any thoughts on the incentive structures at play, and what kind of behavior is "best"?
Me personally, I'm watching CNN, have the NYTimes dashboard up which tracks projections from NYTimes, ABC, NBC, CBS, Fox, CNN and AP. Plus I have the RCP map and data tables up, along with a NYTimes map and a window I use to flip between major news network maps. I'm also in contact with others, and blogging.
Me personally, I'm watching CNN, have the NYTimes dashboard up which tracks projections from NYTimes, ABC, NBC, CBS, Fox, CNN and AP. Plus I have the RCP map and data tables up, along with a NYTimes map and a window I use to flip between major news network maps. I'm also in contact with others, and blogging.
You know what I don't like about the election? I'm beginning to suspect it might take some thunder away from my Phillies.
That said, they've got a woman on CNN being brought into the New York studio from Chicago by a series of cameras generating an image that looks like a hologram. Jessica Yellin is the on-site journalist reporting to Wolf via this cool technology, and she just referenced Princess Leia. I'm either in love with the technology, Ms. Yellin, Star Wars, or some combination therein, but regardless, it's very exciting. Oh yeah, that and the election.
I may post further real-time reactions as the night goes on.
PS - New Futurama movie came out today, Bender's Game. Haven't watched it yet, but it's sitting next to the TV waiting for a winner to be called.
That said, they've got a woman on CNN being brought into the New York studio from Chicago by a series of cameras generating an image that looks like a hologram. Jessica Yellin is the on-site journalist reporting to Wolf via this cool technology, and she just referenced Princess Leia. I'm either in love with the technology, Ms. Yellin, Star Wars, or some combination therein, but regardless, it's very exciting. Oh yeah, that and the election.
I may post further real-time reactions as the night goes on.
PS - New Futurama movie came out today, Bender's Game. Haven't watched it yet, but it's sitting next to the TV waiting for a winner to be called.
My Reminder to Vote
Vote. And vote for Obama.
You know what I'm sick of? People who say it doesn't matter who you vote for. It does matter. I'll concede there's some small advantage to having people vote at all; it could make them more likely to participate in other ways, be more engaged, or at least increase civic awareness.
But if I encourage people to vote no matter who they vote for, isn't it kind of a wash? Vote for Obama. If you're going to vote for McCain, I encourage you to stay home. Stay home...that's such a contrary and unusual statement this time of year, it's practically taboo! And why? One fewer vote for the guy I don't think should win is as good as one extra vote for the guy I think should. Getting someone to switch their vote is a swing of two votes. So if you don't know for whom to vote, I'm not going to tell you it doesn't matter, or even to vote regardless. And I don't care if that seems "undemocratic" (how un-American of me to support a candidate, participate in the process, try to convince people based on issues, encourage others to do likewise in a manner I consider constructive and beneficial, and discourage them from taking actions I would consider detrimental to the country! How horrible!).
So screw this non-partisan support for democracy in which we encourage everyone with no opinion, no information, nothing to add, to go in and cast a completely arbitrary ballot adding randomness to the process. It does matter how you cast your ballot; the future of the world is at stake (we are, after all, choosing its most powerful person).
In that spirit, I'd like to reiterate this blog's endorsement for Barack Obama, who has a superior healthcare plan (McCain's is terrible), a better ability to represent us to the rest of the world (the President's primary responsibility), a better Vice President (as well as a lower chance of needing one), more economic sense (by McCain's own hastily retracted admission), a better philosophy regarding Iraq (spend the money here), a better philosophy regarding every other country (talking, collaboration, all that sissy stuff which saves lives, costs less money, and results in net increases in prosperity), a better energy policy (McCain has a similar stated policy, though in 26 years in Congress, he has voted in accordance with in only a tiny fraction of the time), a better economic plan (McCain's stops at "stay the course with more tax cuts slanted towards rich people"), better advisors (more policy experts, fewer political disciples of the likes of Rove), and a far superior ability to get people to work together, along with a knack for making carefully considered and thoughtful decisions. The world's a complicated place, and it's getting more so. We need a leader looking to the future, not the past. We need someone who's willing to keep an open mind, to have all kinds of discussions with legislators, world leaders, and experts. We need Barack Obama to win this election.
So please, remember to vote, and to vote for Obama.
You know what I'm sick of? People who say it doesn't matter who you vote for. It does matter. I'll concede there's some small advantage to having people vote at all; it could make them more likely to participate in other ways, be more engaged, or at least increase civic awareness.
But if I encourage people to vote no matter who they vote for, isn't it kind of a wash? Vote for Obama. If you're going to vote for McCain, I encourage you to stay home. Stay home...that's such a contrary and unusual statement this time of year, it's practically taboo! And why? One fewer vote for the guy I don't think should win is as good as one extra vote for the guy I think should. Getting someone to switch their vote is a swing of two votes. So if you don't know for whom to vote, I'm not going to tell you it doesn't matter, or even to vote regardless. And I don't care if that seems "undemocratic" (how un-American of me to support a candidate, participate in the process, try to convince people based on issues, encourage others to do likewise in a manner I consider constructive and beneficial, and discourage them from taking actions I would consider detrimental to the country! How horrible!).
So screw this non-partisan support for democracy in which we encourage everyone with no opinion, no information, nothing to add, to go in and cast a completely arbitrary ballot adding randomness to the process. It does matter how you cast your ballot; the future of the world is at stake (we are, after all, choosing its most powerful person).
In that spirit, I'd like to reiterate this blog's endorsement for Barack Obama, who has a superior healthcare plan (McCain's is terrible), a better ability to represent us to the rest of the world (the President's primary responsibility), a better Vice President (as well as a lower chance of needing one), more economic sense (by McCain's own hastily retracted admission), a better philosophy regarding Iraq (spend the money here), a better philosophy regarding every other country (talking, collaboration, all that sissy stuff which saves lives, costs less money, and results in net increases in prosperity), a better energy policy (McCain has a similar stated policy, though in 26 years in Congress, he has voted in accordance with in only a tiny fraction of the time), a better economic plan (McCain's stops at "stay the course with more tax cuts slanted towards rich people"), better advisors (more policy experts, fewer political disciples of the likes of Rove), and a far superior ability to get people to work together, along with a knack for making carefully considered and thoughtful decisions. The world's a complicated place, and it's getting more so. We need a leader looking to the future, not the past. We need someone who's willing to keep an open mind, to have all kinds of discussions with legislators, world leaders, and experts. We need Barack Obama to win this election.
So please, remember to vote, and to vote for Obama.
Sunday, November 02, 2008
My New Poll
It came out this weekend, when discussing the election, that Lord Henry is of the opinion that on a PURELY PHYSICAL basis, Republican Vice Presidential Nominee Sarah Palin is more attractive than writer/producer/actress Tina Fey, who has on occasion portrayed Mrs. Palin quite expertly (I believe his exact words were "way hotter").
The new poll on this blog (see right column) is to test whether Lord Henry is correct, as he adamantly maintains, or if in fact the overwhelming opposition his declaration met is an accurate representation of the majority opinion (and ergo the correct answer, as hotness is a relative cultural standard). Vote now.
In the interest of fairness, I am including a few more representative pictures. The two above show from head to just below the shoulders. Here are two more close-ups:
Tina Fey
Sarah Palin
And here are two which show a more zoomed-out view:
Tina Fey
Sarah Palin
Go vote. Oh, yeah, and remember to vote on election day too. This blog recommends and endorses voting against Palin in both elections.
The new poll on this blog (see right column) is to test whether Lord Henry is correct, as he adamantly maintains, or if in fact the overwhelming opposition his declaration met is an accurate representation of the majority opinion (and ergo the correct answer, as hotness is a relative cultural standard). Vote now.
In the interest of fairness, I am including a few more representative pictures. The two above show from head to just below the shoulders. Here are two more close-ups:
Tina Fey
Sarah Palin
And here are two which show a more zoomed-out view:
Tina Fey
Sarah Palin
Go vote. Oh, yeah, and remember to vote on election day too. This blog recommends and endorses voting against Palin in both elections.
Saturday, November 01, 2008
If any of you former Dungeons and Dragons players would like to better understand the election through a short vignette in which the major players are all playing D&D, I present this script by a blogger who unwittingly became an overnight internet sensation among huge dorks.
Courtesy of Sergeant Trouser.
Courtesy of Sergeant Trouser.
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