My Note on the SC Democratic Primary

So Obama won the Democratic primary in South Carolina, and here have been the stories:

-He won by a wider margin than anyone anticipated (getting just over double the votes of Clinton)

-He won with a record number of black voters

-He beat Hillary Clinton among black women AND white men (so if someone shared a race OR gender with Obama and the other with Hillary, they broke for Obama over Clinton)

-More voters voted for Obama this year than voted in the entire 2004 South Carolina Democratic primary

-Various other stories about demographics, Bill Clinton, and where the campaigns go now

But there's one story that's missing: the difference between the polls and the results. Edwards got the votes he was expected to. Hillary got the votes she was expected to. Obama got WAY more votes than the polls indicated. This means virtually every undecided in the state broke for Obama. That's something incredibly remarkable. If you look at the last 4 polls done in the state (finishing no earlier than 1/23/08), you'd see Edwards projected to get between 17 and 24% of the vote, Clinton projected to get 20 to 30% of the vote, and Obama to get 27% to 43%. Well, the numbers broke down 18% (well predicted), 27% (well predicted) and 55% (blowout).

Granted there were a lot of undecideds in those polls, since the numbers never added up to close to 100%, but the fact is that virtually every undecided voter went for Obama. And that should be the real story. Obama has the momentum, while people are increasingly disenchanted with Hillary and her husband's attack dog strategy. Edwards supporters are holding strong, but not swelling their ranks. The people on the fence, when forced to make a choice, are choosing Obama in huge droves (though interestingly enough, most say they'd be satisfied with the nominee no matter who won).

This is the real story of the week, the real battle in the primaries, and I'm just waiting for the talking heads to realize it. Until then, you can get it here.