My Congressional Hypothesis

So far 17 Republican congressmen plus 6 Republican senators have announced they won't be running as incumbents. The buzz is that this is not only a bad sign for the how the Republican party's doing, but that it will spell trouble for the Republicans come election time.

Now, of course, the Republicans ARE in a bit of trouble come election time (though they still might hold onto the White House). But I don't think the two are related. In fact, I think these resignations will HELP the Republicans come election time. And I think the Republican leadership KNOWS this, but doesn't want to tell anyone. Why? Because part of why it will work so well is that no one knows it's a political move.

Look at the people leaving. These are the people who embody what sickens the country about the Republican party. On top of the scandals and corruption, throw in the fact that these are some of the most loyal self-proclaimed "Bush Republicans" around. What's the GOP's biggest liability in the coming election? Bush's Hindenburg-like approval rating. The GOP is gracefully clearing out extremists who are, in the public eye, inextricably linked with an unpopular, failed, and even hidden, Bush agenda.

So now in 17 congressional districts and 6 state senate elections, the Republicans can run moderates; they can run young guys with clean records; but most importantly, they can run people who have little or no association with the Bush White House. If they take back either the house or the senate, that's how they have to do it. They got creamed in the last round.

Their presidential candidate, whoever he may be, can handle being a Bush Republican, because he'll have experience, and a lot of visibility and ability to clarify all his differences. He'll be his own man. But those running for congress don't have the luxury of that much media attention, money, and other things that equate to public exposure. (Also, let's be honest, it's easier to win when running against a woman or a guy whose middle name is Hussein--but more on why the Democratic candidates are so weak later.)

I'm calling it now: all these resignations are more than rats fleeing a sinking ship. They're washing the stench of failure off some of their more visible failures, and they'll be able to run untainted candidate on a level playing field. Same old tactics; fresh new faces.

Thoughts?

(PS - if any of my readers are over 25 and live in traditionally conservative districts where a "Bush Republican" is running as an incumbent, you've got a decent chance to make it to congress as a Democrat or even an independent in this climate.)