My Take on Sarah Palin

My take on Sarah Palin? Saw it coming.

It's not often I get specific requests of blog topics, but apparently I'm developing some minuscule trace of political clout and have been asked to blog about John McCain's choice of Alaskan Governor Sarah Palin as a running mate for the 2008 presidential election.

The New York Times referred to Ms. Palin as a "surprise pick." The Washington Post called it a "stunning surprise." The Associated Press dubbed the choice a "stunning selection." Reuters ,"a surprise No. 2." The Wall Street Journal, a "surprise choice." Fox News a "surprise VP pick." One of my readers referred to the choice as "idiocy."

I'm thinking about going into politics, because I thought it was a toss-up between her and Mitt Romney (and once Biden was named, she jumped to my top prediction).

Here's why it wasn't idiocy, and why it wasn't surprising.

She's the only one of the 4 people now running with any executive branch experience (a governor with 3 senators--though granted McCain's other top prospects were also most governors). She brings cute little kids to the race to counter Michelle and her liberal spawn (joking). She's a former beauty queen, better looking and younger than Hillary; she's energetic and charismatic in a way old men (especially McCain) are not; and she's young enough to balance out the fact that when John McCain was a child, World War I was called "The Great War," Israel didn't exist, and scientists still hadn't figured out things like the polio vaccine or, you know, the wheel (also joking, but seriously, he's really old and a LOT more likely to be calling on the services of a VP). She's a rising star. And Sarah Palin is a Christian conservative, appealing to and energizing the base McCain was afraid would stay home on election day.

There are a million women in America, who were ready to vote for a woman this time around, and who will be thrilled that they now can. Some will be turned off by her conservatism (and views on abortion rights, or lack thereof), but she'll appeal widely to moderate women in central Pennsylvania, suburban Ohio, and all over Michigan, three crucial swing states.

Hillary opened the door, and McCain is inviting Sarah to walk through it. With this move, the McCain campaign (that must be fun to say out loud) has now positioned itself as the successor to Hillary Clinton's campaign. They're anti-Obama and they've got a woman. Sure, Hillary's a wannabe policy wonk (and an economic idiot...hey who does that remind you of?), but let's be honest, by the end of the primary she was running on a two-plank platform: (1) I'm not Obama, who's inexperienced and not ready, and (2) I'm a woman. Well, guess what, now the McCain/Palin ticket gets to pick up right where she left off. Conventional wisdom dictates (however wise or unwise) that the VP nominee's job is primarily "attack dog," and Hillary's already laid all the groundwork. Ms. Palin has McCain's experience on her ticket, so all she has to do to continue the game plan is to keep being a capable nice-looking woman who attacks Obama every chance she gets.

That's why I would have done EXACTLY what McCain did in this position, and why I would have easily placed a bet on her this morning, even if there were 2-1 odds against me (come to think of it, I really should have done it--I honestly had no idea that everyone thought she was such a long shot).

"But wait!" some of you may be thinking "that all makes sense, though some of it is a long shot, but what about all the reasons NOT to pick her? Or to pick someone else?" OK, let's examine.

Reason Uno: The Economy. McCain clearly could have picked a better person from an economic management standpoint. That said, McCain himself is still a complete idiot when it comes to the economy. Furthermore, the Republican Party as a whole is seen by the country as being economically incompetent these days. It's not a question he can win. Despite it being the most important issue to the public, he knows a Republican isn't going to win on the economy this time around. As long as his pick is at all competent, he's doing all he can (and she is).

Aaron Sorkin wrote in "The West Wing" that "People think campaigns are about two competing answers to the same question. They're not. They're a fight over the question itself." This is 100% true, and it's McCain's strategy. He can lose the most important issue by a little, but if he wins #2 through #5 he'll still win this election. And he's trying to make it about personalities, comfort in known quantities and strategies, Commander-in-Chiefitude, and experience.

Which bring us to the next fake-strike against Sarah Palin: experience. She hasn't even served a full term yet as Governor! Up until then, she was just in local politics! How can I be so stupid as to ignore that! It's a fair point, and implicit in the argument is the notion of a qualifying office (at least in the minds of the electorate). Senator and Governor are better than Mayor or State Legislator. Granted. But can we think of any other big name politician who has served only a single incomplete term in a qualifying office before trying to get elected to work in the White House? "Oh! Oh! It's Barac...HEY! I see where you're going with this." That's right. If you have a problem with her experience, you have a problem with Obama's. If you say "McCain's old, and she's not ready to be president" you then have to examine if Obama's ready to be president either. And even though McCain's old, wouldn't you say the odds of McCain dying in office are at least lower than the odds of Obama NOT dying in office? Because those are the two scenarios in which you get an "inexperienced" hand at the helm of the nation. And if that isn't a problem, then you've got an attractive young rising star on the other side of the aisle who may garner a bit of her own celebrity status.

McCain's pick, while surprising to many, was not to me. CNN commentator and former Clinton advisor Paul Begala said that the Republicans are running the right guy against the Democrats--that they nominated their strongest candidate for 2008. Well, now--in my opinion--he's running with the best running mate he could have picked. And any analyst, reporter or talking head who says differently is too deep in the weeds of the horse race to see the big picture. She's exactly whom I would have picked, and a VERY smart choice for John McCain.

I'd say "good luck," but this blogger, despite being a Republican, has already endorsed Barack Obama (and all of this said, Palin may have been a smarter choice politically, but Biden's a smarter choice to help run the country, and would be a better Vice President).

[Editor's Addendum: The above mention of a blog reader was in no way meant to smack anyone down or make anyone look silly. I was putting the reader in the same category as the Times, the Post, AP and Reuters, which I consider to be among the best in the business. I also think my blog readers are much smarter than average Americans (with vastly superior reasoning skills), and I mentioned the multiple reactions only to demonstrate that I think smart conventional wisdom got it wrong this time...also I'm sad that I didn't put money on it. This blog apologizes if anyone felt belittled.]