Our Inauguration

January 20th, 2009. Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Inauguration day.

Today I saw a man promise to preserve, protect and defend a living document that counted him as three-fifths of a person until an amendment was added in the back.

Today I saw a man take the reins of leadership of a country in which he could have once been owned as property two centuries ago, in which he couldn't have voted one century ago, in which he wouldn't even have been served in some restaurants or been allowed to sit next to me on the bus half a century ago. I saw him become the most powerful person in the world.

Today I saw a great mind become president as the clock struck noon, as he listened to perhaps the most talented quartet of musicians the world has ever seen--a Jew, an Asian, a Christian and a black man--playing a variation of "Simple Gifts," a Shaker melody whose almost-forgotten lyrics declare that it is a gift to be free.

Today I saw a man offer patent honesty about the challenges face by a nation when offered unadulterated devotion and jubilation by the masses. I saw him redirect our attention from the afterglow of an election to the real work that lies ahead.

Today I saw a man captivate the world by raising his right hand, by becoming not just the head but the real face of a nation that leads the world into prosperity and crisis alike, whose relationships with its global neighbors define the destiny of a planet. Today as tears fell, as leaders and peasants held their breath, as humanity watched a transition and a transformation from over 240 nations and territories, we all heard a man say to world leaders--and really to the whole world--that we will be judged by what we can build, not by what we destroy. Leaders will be judged by their people, citizens will be judged by their peers, and nations will be judged by history on the basis of what we create, what we leave behind, and how well we fulfill humanity's pledge to leave for our children better than that which we ourselves received.

Today I saw a man ready to lead, and a nation willing to follow.

My Election Statistic

Here's something absolutely remarkable about Obama's victory: he got people to vote against their economic interests, for him. Now, the Republicans have been doing that for a long time by appealing to social issues and not admitting how bad their policies are for the poor rural conservatives whose votes they almost invariably get (and repay with very little help, economic or otherwise). But this time the Democrats got people to vote against their interests.

George W. Bush won the demographic of people making over $200,000 a year by somewhere around a 2:1 margin. Huge 30-point blowout. But not only was Obama competitive in that demographic, he WON by 6 points. People making over $200,000 a year voted for Obama 53-47. And that's after Obama EXPLICITLY promised to tax them more. He campaigned on raising their taxes, and won their votes. They voted for a better leader, not a better personal tax-deal. Maybe Joe Biden was right, and paying higher taxes is, in this one case, patriotic. I know this little piece of trivia makes me a little prouder to be an American, that Obama inspired people to look long term, not short term, to put their country above themselves, and to prosper from a better nation instead of from tax breaks that favor the wealthy.

CNN.com: "Change has Come" and "Obama beats McCain"
MSNBC.com: "HISTORIC CHOICE" and "Shattering racial barriers, Americans send Barack Obama to the White House"
NYTimes.com: "OBAMA" and "Racial Barrier Falls as Voters Embrace Call for Change"
ABC News: "Mr. President" [Next to picture of Obama] and "Barack Obama makes history, John McCain concedes."
CBS News: "Barack Obama makes history"

Fox News: "FACING A 'STEEP' CLIMB" and "President-elect Barack Obama will inherit on Jan. 20 the worst financial crisis in 70 years and two wars."

Way to be gracious.

A little speechless, though that may be the combination of relief and fatigue.

I have a good feeling about this.

I'm going to miss my little election command center. I should get into politics...further into politics than bad commentary at least.

What's striking to me about this moment is that it will be noted in history for the changes marked by and at this time, on this day. But we didn't vote for Obama for the changes that happened tonight, but for the changes that have been promised. Despite what candidates say, campaigns are about voters, about connecting, about fights over questions, wedge issues, and whom the electorate trusts and likes. But this one really was about ideas and ideals. We followed an inspirational leader, but tonight is not the triumph, but the victory which allows all future triumphs to come. Today we sent a message; tomorrow we go to work.

11:16PM - Obama declared victor by every major news source.

Saw it coming.

InTrade has Obama at 98.7% to win. Iowa and New Mexico are breaking for Obama, meaning he could even lose Oregon or Washington. And, like I said, if he wins California, Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington (or now California plus two of the remaining three), he's got the presidency.

So this blog is now calling the election! I am predicting that Barack Obama will be the forty-fourth President of the United States! I'm sure my endorsement helped, so you're welcome, and congratulations, Senator, soon to be President Elect, Obama.

New Futurama movie will be watched tomorrow.

Want to know how other candidates are doing? Check it out here:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/president/allcandidates/

Bob Barr is beating Nader. Ouch.

Also, CNN just spent a long time doing EXACTLY the analysis I did in my last post, about Obama needing those 4 states which he has almost no chance of losing. They slowly tried to theorize a McCain victory by turning states red, and eventually got to all non-called states red except the 4 I picked out immediately. Then they realized that Obama was almost definitely going to win them, and mentioned McCain would need a huge upset in one to become President (or an already called state would need to go the other way). These people at CNN are kind of slow. Maybe I should apply for a job as a political analyst.

PS - The "Phillies" candidate is not the Philadelphia Phillies, as I had hoped. It's Libertarian candidate George Phillies. Yeah, I know, boo-urns.

NBC just called Ohio for Obama. By their projections, Obama needs 75 more votes to clinch. California, Oregon, Washington and Hawaii would do it for him. Virginia, Florida, North Carolina, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, and Indiana could all be made irrelevant. As I've typed this, I just saw ABC, CBS and Fox have also called Ohio for Obama.

Addendum made a minute later: those 4 states would clinch for Obama under projections by NBC, ABC and CBS right now.

So NBC and ABC have just called Pennsylvania for Obama. Meanwhile CNN, Fox News, CBS, and non-TV organizations like the AP and NYTimes (as well as RealClearPolitics, which, while not as mainstream, I respect a lot) have not. At this stage in the election I'm looking for the fullest map, the most filled in projection, all the while realizing I'm part of the problem. They call states too early (like in 2000) because of people like me. I understand the tug, and how it's a prisoner's dilemma. It's best for society if no one makes premature calls, and in the long run it's the best for everyone, but for any state at any moment, it's best to make the call as soon as possible, regardless of what the other networks do. If they don't, you get some of their viewers/readers. If they do, you need to keep up so they don't get yours. That said, over time, if you're inaccurate, people stop relying on you (and in terms of personal incentives, not organizations, you could lose your job for being that embarrassingly wrong). Sorry the analysis is a little more superficial than I usually provide; it's a busy night. Any thoughts on the incentive structures at play, and what kind of behavior is "best"?

Me personally, I'm watching CNN, have the NYTimes dashboard up which tracks projections from NYTimes, ABC, NBC, CBS, Fox, CNN and AP. Plus I have the RCP map and data tables up, along with a NYTimes map and a window I use to flip between major news network maps. I'm also in contact with others, and blogging.

You know what I don't like about the election? I'm beginning to suspect it might take some thunder away from my Phillies.

That said, they've got a woman on CNN being brought into the New York studio from Chicago by a series of cameras generating an image that looks like a hologram. Jessica Yellin is the on-site journalist reporting to Wolf via this cool technology, and she just referenced Princess Leia. I'm either in love with the technology, Ms. Yellin, Star Wars, or some combination therein, but regardless, it's very exciting. Oh yeah, that and the election.

I may post further real-time reactions as the night goes on.

PS - New Futurama movie came out today, Bender's Game. Haven't watched it yet, but it's sitting next to the TV waiting for a winner to be called.

My Reminder to Vote

Vote. And vote for Obama.

You know what I'm sick of? People who say it doesn't matter who you vote for. It does matter. I'll concede there's some small advantage to having people vote at all; it could make them more likely to participate in other ways, be more engaged, or at least increase civic awareness.

But if I encourage people to vote no matter who they vote for, isn't it kind of a wash? Vote for Obama. If you're going to vote for McCain, I encourage you to stay home. Stay home...that's such a contrary and unusual statement this time of year, it's practically taboo! And why? One fewer vote for the guy I don't think should win is as good as one extra vote for the guy I think should. Getting someone to switch their vote is a swing of two votes. So if you don't know for whom to vote, I'm not going to tell you it doesn't matter, or even to vote regardless. And I don't care if that seems "undemocratic" (how un-American of me to support a candidate, participate in the process, try to convince people based on issues, encourage others to do likewise in a manner I consider constructive and beneficial, and discourage them from taking actions I would consider detrimental to the country! How horrible!).

So screw this non-partisan support for democracy in which we encourage everyone with no opinion, no information, nothing to add, to go in and cast a completely arbitrary ballot adding randomness to the process. It does matter how you cast your ballot; the future of the world is at stake (we are, after all, choosing its most powerful person).

In that spirit, I'd like to reiterate this blog's endorsement for Barack Obama, who has a superior healthcare plan (McCain's is terrible), a better ability to represent us to the rest of the world (the President's primary responsibility), a better Vice President (as well as a lower chance of needing one), more economic sense (by McCain's own hastily retracted admission), a better philosophy regarding Iraq (spend the money here), a better philosophy regarding every other country (talking, collaboration, all that sissy stuff which saves lives, costs less money, and results in net increases in prosperity), a better energy policy (McCain has a similar stated policy, though in 26 years in Congress, he has voted in accordance with in only a tiny fraction of the time), a better economic plan (McCain's stops at "stay the course with more tax cuts slanted towards rich people"), better advisors (more policy experts, fewer political disciples of the likes of Rove), and a far superior ability to get people to work together, along with a knack for making carefully considered and thoughtful decisions. The world's a complicated place, and it's getting more so. We need a leader looking to the future, not the past. We need someone who's willing to keep an open mind, to have all kinds of discussions with legislators, world leaders, and experts. We need Barack Obama to win this election.

So please, remember to vote, and to vote for Obama.